FIRE Calculator

Am I ready to retire? Check if your assets can support your lifestyle.

How This Calculator Works

1. How We Calculate FIRE Number

FIRE Number = Annual Expenses ÷ Safe Withdrawal Rate. Based on the Trinity Study, a 4% withdrawal rate historically has 95% success over 30 years. We add your estimated taxes and LTC reserve to get the total amount needed. All values are in today's dollars so you can directly compare against your current assets.

2. How We Calculate Returns

All returns are "real" returns (after inflation). When we say stocks return 6%, that means 6% purchasing power growth above inflation. We apply a weighted average based on your allocation (stocks, bonds, real estate, cash) and reduce returns slightly for tax drag in taxable accounts.

3. How We Display Values (Today's vs Future Dollars)

FIRE Number Breakdown always shows today's dollars - the amount you need right now to retire. This makes it easy to compare against your current assets. The Chart can toggle between today's dollars and future dollars. In "Future $" mode, you'll see what your account balance will actually look like (e.g., $250k today becomes $410k in 17 years at 3% inflation). The inflation baseline (amber dashed line) shows what your starting assets would be worth with just inflation - portfolio above this line means real wealth growth.

4. How We Handle End-of-Life Healthcare

70% of people 65+ need long-term care (LTC). We model LTC costs in the final years before life expectancy. The Conservative preset uses 2x median cost ($220k/year) to cover premium care, high-cost areas, or couples needing simultaneous care (Genworth 2024 median is ~$110k for nursing home). For a 2-person household with 5 years of LTC, this adds $440k/year to expenses during that period.

5. How We Handle Taxes

We calculate gross withdrawals needed to cover your net spending after taxes. Tax treatment varies by location:

  • US: Tax-advantaged withdrawals taxed as ordinary income (after $29,200 standard deduction for married). Taxable brokerage pays preferential LTCG rates (0%/15%/20%). We cap the 0% bracket benefit at $30k max for conservative planning.
  • Japan: All capital gains taxed at flat 20.315% (no 0% bracket). Residence tax ~10% on income. Uses US federal brackets as approximation for ordinary income.

Sources: Trinity Study, Genworth 2024 Cost of Care Survey, IRS Topic 409, SSA Life Tables

$
$
Years of expenses covered:8.0 years
60% ($1,200,000)
0% ($0)
35% ($700,000)
5% ($100,000)
50% ($1,000,000)

Tax-advantaged includes:

  • 401(k), 403(b), 457(b)
  • Traditional & Roth IRA
  • HSA (Health Savings Account)
  • SEP IRA, SIMPLE IRA

Taxable brokerage: 50% ($1,000,000)

Selected: US (CA/NY)

  • US (No State Tax): Preferential LTCG rates (0%/15%/20%), no state tax. TX, FL, WA, NV, WY, SD, AK, TN, NH
  • US (CA/NY): Preferential LTCG rates (0%/15%/20%) + ~10% state tax on all income.
  • Japan: Flat 20.315% on all capital gains (no 0% bracket) + ~10% residence tax.
6.0%
2.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
5 years
$220,000/yr

Total LTC Reserve: $2,200,000 (for 2 people)

LTC adds $440,000/yr to expenses from age 85 to 89

Note: Median nursing home cost is ~$110k/yr (Genworth 2024). Conservative preset uses 2x ($220k) to account for premium care, high-cost areas, or couples needing overlapping care.

⚠

Not Yet FIRE Ready

You need $6,306,612 more

You Have

$2,000,000

You Need

$8,306,612

Gap-$6,306,612
$0$8,306,612

Portfolio Longevity

Money Lasts Until

Age 47

Years Covered

7

Warning: Money runs out 43 years before your target age

FIRE Number Breakdown

Today's dollars
Annual expenses:$250,000
Federal taxes
:+ $39,985
State taxes (10.0%):+ $27,214
Total taxes (21.2% effective):+ $67,199
Gross withdrawal needed:$317,199
Base FIRE number (4.0% SWR):$7,929,975
LTC reserve (ages 85-89):+ $2,200,000
Total FIRE Number:$8,306,612

FAQ

Two practical questions the calculator does not answer by itself.

How do I actually withdraw money after FIRE?

Example: suppose you plan to spend USD 180,000/year. You might keep USD 90,000-270,000 in checking, a high-yield savings account, a money market fund, or short-term Treasuries. Turn off automatic reinvestment so dividends and bond interest land in cash. Once or a few times per year, sell enough from taxable brokerage to refill the bucket, while coordinating taxes, Roth conversions, capital gains, marketplace health-insurance income rules, and future required retirement-account withdrawals. If you also have rental income, consulting, pensions, or Social Security, those deposits reduce how much you need to sell.

  • Monthly version: keep 12 months of expenses in cash, move one month of spending into checking each month, and refill/rebalance the cash bucket quarterly.
  • Annual version: after year-end tax planning, sell enough taxable investments to fund the next year, set aside estimated taxes, and leave retirement accounts untouched unless conversions or age rules make withdrawals useful.
  • Account-order version: a common default is taxable brokerage first, then tax-deferred accounts later, with Roth last. But that can change if you are doing Roth conversions, managing marketplace health-insurance subsidies, harvesting capital gains, avoiding large future required withdrawals, or trying to keep state taxes low.
  • Bad-market version: use the cash bucket and flexible spending cuts first, then avoid selling depressed stocks if bonds, cash, dividends, or optional income can cover the gap.

Sources

How do I handle health insurance before Medicare?

Common bridges are a spouse’s employer plan, temporary continuation coverage after leaving a job, an Affordable Care Act marketplace plan, an off-exchange/private plan, or group coverage through a small business. Do not model only the premium. Model premiums plus deductibles, out-of-pocket maximums, prescriptions, dental and vision, uncovered care, network quality, specialist access, state coverage, travel coverage, and whether your taxable income changes marketplace subsidies.

  • Concrete cost example: one ChubbyFIRE thread cites a mid-40s couple with a teenager paying about USD 1,100/month for an Affordable Care Act high-deductible plan and roughly USD 20k-25k/year in total healthcare spending.
  • Conservative budget example: one FatFIRE thread models healthcare as a separate USD 30k/year line because healthcare inflation can outpace general inflation.
  • Self-insurance caution: paying cash for routine care or concierge primary care may improve access, but it does not replace major medical insurance, negotiated rates, hospital coverage, or catastrophic protection.

Sources

This calculator is for educational purposes only. All projections are based on historical data and assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Consult a financial advisor for personalized advice.