Core Idea
- All decisions are bets on uncertain futures---judge decision quality by your process, not outcomes alone
- Good decisions can fail and bad decisions can succeed; separate skill (controllable) from luck (uncontrollable)
- Use probabilistic thinking instead of black-and-white certainty to make better choices under uncertainty
Reframe How You Think
- Replace "I'm right" with confidence ranges ("I'm 70% confident...") to reduce overconfidence and invite challenge
- Combat resulting: stop judging past decisions purely by their outcomes---ask what you knew then, not what you know now
- Use the perspective test: "What would I think if this happened to someone else?" to spot self-serving bias and find real lessons
Build Decision-Making Systems
- Form truth-seeking pods with diverse viewpoints and explicit rules: reward admitting mistakes, challenge assumptions, stay focused on accuracy
- Implement CUDOS norms: shared data, universal standards, disinterested perspective, organized skepticism
- Document outcomes over time to spot real patterns vs. noise (e.g., distinguish skill from lucky streaks)
Use Mental Tools Before Deciding
- 10-10-10 questions: What happens in 10 minutes, 10 months, 10 years? Engages deliberative thinking before emotion takes over
- Premortem: Imagine failure, work backward to identify what could go wrong and prevent it
- Ulysses contracts: Precommit your future self to rational decisions before emotional moments arrive
Calculate and Communicate Smarter
- Expected value math: Multiply probability x value for each outcome, sum them up---beats gut feel for major decisions
- Use probability data to break down options numerically (even rough percentages beat intuition alone)
- Watch for momentum bias: Question whether recent wins/losses reflect skill or just variance; reset expectations accordingly
- Lead with assent + "and" instead of "but" when disagreeing; ask if someone wants advice before giving it
Action Plan
- This week: Pick one major decision; express your confidence as a percentage and explain what would change it
- This month: Form a small truth-seeking group (2-3 people) with a charter to challenge each other's assumptions
- Ongoing: Before high-stakes choices, run a premortem and document outcomes to calibrate future estimates
- Daily: When evaluating past results, separate controllable factors (skill/process) from uncontrollable ones (luck) before drawing conclusions