Core Idea
- Stop guessing; use data to kill entrepreneurial delusion—instincts are experiments, data is proof.
- Pick ONE metric per stage that answers your riskiest question; everything you build must directly impact it.
- Your business model determines your metrics—e-commerce, SaaS, mobile, media, and marketplaces each need different KPIs.
The Five Stages & Your OMTM (One Metric That Matters)
1. Empathy — Validate the problem is real
- Run 15+ customer interviews; score for pain signals
- Define OMTM: Can we prove customers have this problem?
2. Stickiness — Prove users come back
- Focus on retention/engagement before scaling
- Define OMTM: What % of users return daily/weekly?
3. Virality — Measure organic growth
- Track viral coefficient and cycle time
- Define OMTM: How many new users does each user bring?
4. Revenue — Prove unit economics work
- Balance customer lifetime value vs. acquisition cost
- Define OMTM: Does LTV exceed CAC by 3x+?
5. Scale — Grow efficiently across channels
- Segment churn by channel to catch cannibalization
- Define OMTM: Can we maintain growth metrics while expanding?
Avoid These Traps
- Vanity metrics (total signups, page views, followers) stroke ego but don't drive decisions—use ratios and rates instead.
- Asking users to rate features—force binary choices between alternatives to reveal true priorities.
- Premature polish—kill features that don't improve OMTM; test with MVPs and proxies first.
- Trying both efficiency AND differentiation—pick one strategy or get stuck in the middle.
What to Measure by Business Model
- E-commerce: conversion rate, cart size, repeat purchase rate, customer lifetime value.
- SaaS: churn, engagement, conversion to paid, monthly recurring revenue, customer acquisition cost.
- Mobile apps: DAU/MAU, launch rate, ARPU, % paying users, time to first purchase.
- Marketplaces: buyer/seller growth, inventory quality, search effectiveness, fraud prevention.
Run Experiments Like This
- Define success before you start—draw a line in the sand quantitatively.
- Combine qualitative + quantitative—interviews explain why, data proves what.
- Use leading indicators (predict future) over lagging ones (explain past).
- Prove causation, not just correlation—run controlled A/B tests to prove you can control outcomes.
Leadership & Scale
- Three-Threes Model: 3 big assumptions (board), 3 actions/week (exec), 3 experiments/day (team) keeps everyone aligned.
- Segment customers A/B/C: Fire or fix C-customers; double down on profitable B's; manage A's carefully to avoid churn.
- Start with one secondary metric, optimize it publicly, use wins to justify data adoption company-wide.
- Share methodology, not just results—transparency builds trust; failures teach more than wins.
Action Plan
- This week: Define your stage (Empathy/Stickiness/Virality/Revenue/Scale) and pick ONE metric that answers your riskiest question.
- Before building: Run 15+ customer interviews or 5-10 customer calls; validate pain or demand exists.
- Each sprint: Set a clear success threshold for your OMTM; kill features that don't move it; A/B test one variable at a time.
- Every decision: Ask "Does this improve our OMTM?"—if no, don't do it.
- Share results weekly: Show methodology + data to your team; let evidence, not ego, drive direction.